domingo, outubro 19, 2008

Quantos zeros formam um bilhão?



Recebí de um amigo este email que, aparentemente, anda circulando pelos Estados Unidos.
É uma outra forma de enxergar a crise e, bem verdadeira é a sua essência
.

"Desde o início desta crise, só se houve falar de bilhão prá cá, bilhão prá lá, mas para nós, comum dos mortais, é difícil ter a real noção do que esse número significa.
De qualquer forma, a próxima vez que você ouvir um político usando a palavra “bilhão” de maneira simplória, pense se você realmente quer que ele administre todo o dinheiro que você paga de impostos...
Um bilhão é um número difícil de ser assimilado entretanto, uma agência de publicidade conseguiu demonstrá-lo de uma forma bem interessante.

  • Um bilhão de segundos atrás estávamos em 1959.

  • Há um bilhão de minutos, Jesus estava vivo.

  • Há um bilhão de horas, nossos ancestrais viviam na Idade da Pedra.

  • Há um bilhão de dias, ninguém caminhava na Terra sobre dois pés.

  • Um bilhão de dólares é quanto o governo americano gasta em 8 horas e vinte minutos, pelo seu atual ritmo de gastos.
Como o assunto aqui é financeiro e político, um exemplo da simploriedade dos ditos representantes do povo pode ser dado pela proposta da senadora Americana Mary Landrieu (D) que está solicitando 250 bilhões do Congresso para reconstruir New Orleans.
O que esse número, realmente, significa? (É incrível como algumas simples contas aritméticas podem esclarecer muitas coisas)

A.
Bem...se você for um dos 484.674 residentes de New Orleans (homem, mulher e criança) você vai receber U$515.810,63
B.
Ou… se você é o proprietário de uma das 188.251 residências, você recebera U$1.328.014,19
C.
Ou... se você pertencer a uma família de quatro membros sua família recebera U$2.063.242,51

Agora, esta crise financeira fará o governo gastar, pelo menos, outro trilhão e 400 bilhões de dolares, o que significa que para cada cidadão a brincadeira vai custar U$4.681,33...esteje você hipotecado ou não!


Alô Washington, D.C. acordem!
Suas calculadoras estão quebradas, ou o quê?


Cigarette Tax Corporate Income Tax
Dog License Tax
Federal Income Tax
Federal Unemployment Tax
Fishing License Tax
Food License Tax
Fuel P ermit Tax
Gasoline Tax
Hunting License Tax
Inheritance Tax
Inventory Tax
IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)
IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)
Liquor Tax
Luxury Tax
Marriage License Tax
Medicare Tax
Property Tax
Real Estate Tax
Service charge taxes
Social Security Tax
Road Usage Tax (Truckers)
Sales Taxes
Recreational Vehicle Tax
School Tax
State Income Tax
State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)
Telephone Federal Excise Tax
Telephone Federal Universal Service Fee Tax
Telephone Federal, State and Local Surcharge Tax
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
Telephone Recurring and Non-recurring Charges Tax
Telephone State and Local Tax
Telephone Usage Charge Tax
Utility Tax
Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax
Workers Compensation Tax

Ainda acha engraçado?

NENHUM
desses impostos existia há 100 anos... e, os Estados Unidos, até recentemente, pelo menos, era a Nação mais próspera do Mundo... Não existia nenhuma dívida nacional e tínhamos a maior classe média do mundo...
O que aconteceu?
Simplesmente acreditamos nos políticos...
"


Observações:
1 bilhão de segundos atrás era 1976 e não 1959.
1 bilhão de minutos atrás, Jesus já havia morrido há 73 anos. (pelo calendário gregoriano...)
1 bilhão de horas atrás significa há 114.156 anos. Sim, a "Idade da Pedra", período: "Paleolítico Médio".
1 bilhão de dias = 2.739.726 anos atrás. O primeiro "hominídio" totalmente bípede já existia: "Australopithecus Anamensis".


(Tradução, edição e observações do Freeman)

segunda-feira, outubro 13, 2008

Afinal, como tudo começou?



Nestas últimas duas semanas estive “garimpando”, nos bastidores, as causas prováveis do tsunami financeiro que se abateu sobre o mundo. Entre o que recebí do exterior, um resumo: 'What Caused the Loan Crisis' me pareceu muito convincente ao ser avaliado em conjunto com outras informações.

Está claro, em boa medida, que o gerenciamento irresponsável de grandes e “key players” do mercado financeiro mundial acionaram, com efeito retardado, o gatilho do desastre. Mas, o crédito promíscuo, num ambiente de liquidez abundante também tiveram o seu papel fundamental. Entretanto, a causa das causas, a mãe dos vícios é outra. Um longo caminho de irregularidades e espertezas políticas é que criou as condições verdadeiras para o desastre. E sobre isso, pouca gente quer falar. Mas, como dizem os franceses quando querem se referir a uma verdadeira causa oculta: “chercher la femme”. E ela aqui é muito mais do que os bodes espiatórios que a grande imprensa publica, como a “falta de regulamentação”, ou das “imperfeições do mercado”, ou qualquer outro qualificativo que se queira dar ao evento. Ela envolve os políticos em atos irresponsáveis. Muito mais do que qualquer um imaginaria...

Vejam a retrospectiva: (na lingua original)


1977: Pres. Jimmy Carter signs into Law the Community Reinvestment Act the foundation and cornerstone for the impending disaster.. The law pressured financial institutions to extend home loans to those who would otherwise not qualify.

The publicized premise: Home ownership would improve poor and crime-ridden communities and neighborhoods in terms of crime, investment, jobs, etc.

The Results: Statistics bear out that it did not help.

How did the government get so deeply involved in the housing market?
Answer:
Bill Clinton and the Democrats in Congress wanted it that way.

1992: Republican representative Jim Leach (IO) warned of the danger that Fannie and Freddie were changing from being agencies of the public at large to money machines for the principals and the stock holding few.

1993: The Clinton administration extensively rewrote Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's rules turning the quasi-private mortgage-funding firms into semi-nationalized monopolies dispensing cash and loans to large Democratic voting blocks and handing favors, jobs and contributions to political allies. This potent mix led inevitably to corruption and now the collapse of Freddie and Fannie.

1994: Despite warnings, Clinton unveiled his National Home-Ownership Strategy which broadened the CRA in ways congress never intended.

1995: Congress, about to change from a Democrat majority to Republican, Clinton orders Robert Rubin's Treasury Dept to rewrite the rules. Rubin's Treasury reworked rules, forcing banks to satisfy quotas for sub-prime and minority loans to get a satisfactory CRA rating. The rating was key to expansion or mergers for banks. Loans began to be made on the basis of race and little else.

1997 - 1999: Clinton, bypassing Republicans in Congress, enlisted Andrew Cuomo, then Secretary of Housing and Urban Developement, allowing Freddie and Fannie to get into the sub-prime market in a BIG way. Led by Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Chris Dodd, congress doubled down on the risk by easing capital limits and allowing them to hold just 2.5% of capital to back their investments vs. 10% for banks. Since they could borrow at lower rates than banks their enterprises boomed.

With incentives in place, banks poured billions in loans into poor communities, often 'no doc', 'no income', requiring no money down and no verification of income. Worse still was the cronyism: Fannie and Freddie became home to out-of work-politicians, mostly Clinton Democrats. 384 politicians got big campaign donations from Fannie and Freddie. Over $200 million had been spent on lobbying and political activities. During the 1990's Fannie and Freddie enjoyed a subsidy of as musch as $182 Billion, most of it going to principals and shareholders, not poor borrowers as claimed.

Did it work? Minorities made up 49% of the 12.5 million new homeowners but many of those loans have gone bad and the minority homeownership rates are shrinking fast.

1999: New Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, became alarmed at Fannie and Freddie's excesses. Congress held hearings the ensuing year but nothing was done because Fannie and Freddie had donated millions to key congressmen and radical groups, ensuring no meaningful changes would take place. 'We manage our political risk with the same intensity that we manage our credit and interest rate risks,' Fannie CEO Franklin Raines, a former Clinton official and current Barack Obama advisor, bragged to investors in 1999.

2000: Secretary Summers sent Undersecretary Gary Gensler to Congress seeking an end to the 'special status'. Democrats raised a ruckus as did Fannie and Freddie, headed by politically connected CEO's who knew how to reward and punish. 'We think that the statements evidence a contempt for the nation's housing and mortgage markets' Freddie spokesperson Sharon McHale said. It was the last chance during the Clinton era for reform.

2001: Republicans try repeatedly to bring fiscal sanity to Fannie and Freddie but Democrats blocked any attempt at reform; especially Rep. Barney Frank and Sen.Chris Dodd who now run key banking committees and were huge beneficiaries of campaign contributions from the mortgage giants.

2003: Bush proposes what the NY Times called 'the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis a decade ago'. Even after discovering a scheme by Fannie and Freddie to overstate earnings by $10.6 billion to boost their bonuses, the Democrats killed reform.

2005: Then Fed chairman Alan Greenspan warns Congress: 'We are placing the total financial system at substantial risk'. Sen. McCain, with two others, sponsored a Fannie/Freddie reform bill and said, 'If congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system and the economy as a whole'. Sen. Harry Reid accused the GOP ;of trying to 'cripple the ability of Fannie and Freddie to carry out their mission of expanding homeownership' The bill went nowhere.

2007: By now Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee over HALF of the $12 trillion US mortgage market. The mortgage giants, whose executive suites were top-heavy with former Democratic officials, had been working with Wall St. to repackage the bad loans and sell them to investors. As the housing market fell in '07, subprime mortgage portfolios suffered major losses. The crisis was on, though it was 15 years in the making.

2008: McCain has repeatedly called for reforming the behemoths, Bush urged reform 17 times. Still the media have repeated Democrats' talking points about this being a 'Republican' disaster. A few Republicans are complicit but Fannie and Freddie were created by Democrats, regulated by Democrats, largely run by Democrats and protected by Democrats. That's why taxpayers are now being asked for $700 billion!!